The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz marks a major escalation in geopolitical tensions, with direct consequences for global oil flows and energy markets
Strait of Hormuz blockade, how the US naval strategy could unfold
The United States has announced plans to restrict maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports starting Monday 13 April at 16:00 CET, effectively halting the flow of nearly two million barrels of Iranian oil per day to global markets. With a Strait of Hormuz blockade in place, the implications for oil markets and geopolitical stability are immediate and far-reaching.
What has been announced
Following failed negotiations between US and Iranian officials in Islamabad, Donald Trump stated that the US Navy would begin intercepting vessels attempting to enter or exit Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States Central Command clarified that the blockade would apply only to ships linked to Iran, including those heading to or departing from Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
While freedom of navigation for other vessels should remain formally unaffected, US authorities have not provided detailed operational guidelines.
In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any military approach to the strait would be considered a violation of the ceasefire. Tehran has also signalled the possibility of targeting vessels or infrastructure in Gulf states hosting US forces.
Iran has already leveraged control of the strait as political pressure, reportedly allowing passage in exchange for payments. Some Iranian lawmakers even suggested a toll of up to $2 million per transit, potentially involving Oman.
How the Strait of Hormuz blockade could be enforced
The objective of the Strait of Hormuz blockade is to deprive Iran of leverage while reopening the passage to global trade as quickly as possible, potentially easing oil prices.
However, operational details remain unclear. The US has not specified the number of naval units involved, whether air support will be deployed, or the extent of coordination with Gulf allies.
Experts consider direct attacks on tankers unlikely due to the risk of environmental disaster. Instead, the US Navy may attempt to force vessels to change course through deterrence and intimidation.
If this approach fails, armed boarding teams could be deployed to physically seize control of ships.
“Trump wants a rapid solution. The reality is that this mission is difficult to sustain alone and likely unsustainable in the medium to long term,” said Dana Stroul, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in comments to the The Guardian.
Strait of Hormuz blockade, implications for global oil flows
Under normal conditions, nearly 150 vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz every day. In March, however, traffic dropped dramatically due to the Middle East conflict, with just over 150 ships recorded for the entire month, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Ships that managed to pass likely reached agreements with Iranian authorities, possibly involving transit fees.
Despite a ceasefire agreement reached two weeks earlier, maritime traffic remains severely constrained. As of 7 April, nearly 187 loaded tankers were still in the Gulf, holding approximately 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products, according to Kpler.
Analysts warn that flows from Gulf producers will not immediately return to pre-war levels, as damaged energy infrastructure requires time to be restored.
