The European energy crisis is entering a new phase. While supply security appears stable for now, structural risks linked to LNG availability, geopolitics and storage levels could reshape the outlook for winter 2026-2027
European energy crisis outlook today
The European energy crisis has temporarily eased its grip on gas prices, following signals of a ceasefire in the Middle East and renewed US-Iran negotiations expected in Islamabad. These developments have stabilised global markets, leading to a short-term decline in gas prices.
However, the balance remains fragile. Ongoing tensions, including recent attacks in Lebanon, highlight the uncertainty ahead and reinforce the need for Europe to anticipate supply security challenges well in advance.
One point is increasingly clear: regardless of any truce, damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and the prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz will have lasting consequences on key commodities, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Impact of the Iran conflict on LNG supply
“The ceasefire means that the 14 LNG cargoes stranded in the Gulf could leave the Strait of Hormuz, easing pressure on the global gas market,” said Tom Marzec-Manser of Wood Mackenzie.
Yet, a structural recovery in supply depends on restarting facilities currently offline or damaged by the conflict in Iran.
At present, around 77 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of Qatari LNG production remains unavailable, representing roughly 20% of global supply. An additional 6 Mtpa from UAE facilities is also offline.
Although Qatar is preparing to return to the market, even under favourable conditions, a full recovery will take time. Physical repairs, restart procedures, port congestion and insurance delays suggest that global LNG supply may not fully normalise for several years.
How exposed is the European gas market?
What does this mean for the European energy crisis? According to the ENTSOG, the system remains under control in terms of supply.
The “Summer Supply Outlook 2026” highlights a flexible and resilient European system, although not without challenges. Direct reliance on Qatari LNG remains limited, accounting for about 8% of imports in 2025, but Europe is still highly exposed to global price dynamics and competition with Asia.
Reduced LNG availability has already pushed up TTF gas prices, increasing market volatility. After peaking above 61 €/MWh in March 2026, prices fell back to 44.52 €/MWh on 9 April. For comparison, pre-crisis levels ranged between 15 and 25 €/MWh.
European energy crisis scenarios for 2026-2027
ENTSOG simulations outline multiple short-term scenarios based on LNG availability, Russian gas flows and demand levels, covering both summer injection and winter withdrawal phases.
Summer 2026 scenarios
The EU aims to reach 90% storage capacity by 30 September 2026, starting from 28% on 1 April.
- Optimal scenario (LNG Optimal): Full LNG availability and continued Russian flows would allow storage levels to reach 92%. Without Russian supply, this would fall to 86%, requiring extended injections and demand response measures.
- Tight scenario (LNG Tight): A 20% reduction in LNG availability would limit storage to 76%, or 70% in the absence of Russian gas.
Winter 2026/2027 scenarios
Simulations assess the system’s ability to meet demand until 31 March 2027.
- Optimal scenario: Storage levels would end winter at 47%, or 36% without Russian gas.
- Tight scenario: Storage could fall to 14%, or just 11% without Russian supply, effectively leaving only strategic reserves and raising the risk of an energy lockdown, with forced demand reductions estimated at around 3%.
Gas security, how vulnerable is Italy?
Central and South-Eastern European countries, particularly landlocked ones, remain the most exposed under disruption scenarios.
Italy presents a contrasting picture within the European energy crisis. While facing higher price exposure, it is among the most prepared in terms of reserves.
As of 1 April 2026, Italy’s storage levels stood at 43.4%, well above the EU average of 28%. Even in a scenario of full Russian supply disruption and no demand reduction, storage could reach 89% by October.
In the most critical winter simulations, Italy is expected to maintain resilience, ending March 2027 with around 25% storage levels.
Gas prices in Italy in 2026
Geopolitical uncertainty makes precise forecasts difficult. The European gas market remains highly sensitive, and Italy, due to its dependence on gas, is particularly exposed to volatility.
Currently, the GME index stands at around 43 €/MWh (0.46 €/Smc). While lower than recent peaks, further shocks cannot be ruled out.
According to Oliver Wyman, part of the Marsh group, Italy could face an additional €14–20 billion in energy costs between April and December 2026 compared to pre-crisis levels.
For households not protected by fixed-price contracts, average bills could increase by €280 to €400, depending on market conditions.
