A new study reveals Europe's vast potential for renewable fuels, emphasizing independence from fossil sources. Utilizing waste and non-food crops can fulfill future European mobility demands.
Renewable fuels can make the EU independent
The ecological transition of European transportation is no longer just a technological challenge but a matter of strategic independence. While electrification is at the heart of the global debate, the transformation of the transportation sector towards fossil-fuel-free energy sources must also consider other energy options.
Among the options on the table are hydrogen and so-called Carbon Neutral Fuels (CNF), which include all fuels with a lower CO2 value compared to those derived from fossil sources.
EU self-sufficiency with renewable fuels for European mobility
The study titled “From raw material to fossil-free mobility“, conducted by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology with DBFZ and commissioned by BMW, sheds new light on Europe’s resources. According to the report, Europe does not suffer from a shortage of raw materials but requires a broader industrial vision.
Potential beyond used cooking oil
The study analyzes the substitution potential of advanced and renewable fuels derived from biological raw materials compared to fossil fuels across all EU sectors. The analysis reveals surprising data: used cooking oil (UCO), while frequently cited, represents only 1% of the total potential. The true strength lies in agricultural waste (such as straw, accounting for 15.7%), municipal waste (14.7%), and manure (12.5%).
The role of CNF vehicles and synergy with electric mobility
For this transition to be effective, a new class of vehicles, termed vCNF, an acronym for Carbon Neutral Fuels Vehicle, is necessary. These are vehicles equipped with internal combustion engines optimized to run exclusively on renewable fuels, thereby ensuring zero fossil CO2 emissions.
According to the analysis conducted by the German study, while electrification accelerates in the passenger car segment, CNFs become crucial for heavy-duty transportation and existing fleets that will operate for decades, allowing the use of existing distribution infrastructures without radical technical modifications.
Energy independence and resilience
The research emphasizes that while moderate raw material imports will still be necessary in the short term to accelerate the market, in the long term, Europe holds the potential to meet its energy needs for road mobility using internal resources. This would not only reduce geopolitical dependence but also strengthen regional value chains and the circular economy.
Thanks to internal raw materials alone, the EU can cover between 38% and 55% of road transport fuel demand by 2030, rising to 44-67% by 2035. In the high resource mobilization scenario, European advanced biofuel production can meet 107% of the projected demand for the entire road fleet, eliminating structural import dependence.
The study identifies approximately 21 million hectares of marginal or degraded land in Europe that could be designated for cultivating non-food crops for energy production, without competing with the food supply chain.
Policy and investments
Despite promising data, the success of this vision depends on stable political framework conditions. Experts call for investment security and EU-level coordination for the scalability of conversion technologies; the transition from raw material to fossil-free mobility is technically possible and quantitatively sustainable.
