US diesel export ban threatens supplies to Europe
From one dependency to another, and from one war to the next, Europe remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels and exposed to the consequences of political decisions taken elsewhere. The latest concern is Donald Trump’s threat of a potential US diesel export ban, a measure intended to bring down domestic fuel prices ahead of the November midterm elections.
As European inventories begin to tighten, Trump, campaigning ahead of the elections, said he was considering a ban on diesel exports “very seriously”. The United States, the world’s largest exporter of the fuel, supplied almost half of Europe’s diesel imports in August.
US diesel export ban: Washington urges France and Germany to release stocks
According to Reuters, the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to draw on their emergency diesel stocks to help ease global fuel prices, warning that otherwise Europe could face a potential US diesel export ban.
The US administration is reportedly particularly frustrated with the French and German governments, which, according to US officials, have not fully honoured previous commitments to release emergency stocks of oil and petroleum products.
“It is in Europe’s best interest to work with the United States as we seek to pursue different avenues to increase the supply of refined products and lower costs for consumers,” a US official said.
A second official, from Europe, told the news agency that the United States had asked the EU to release 120 million barrels of diesel over the next six months. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said the Trump administration expects announcements from Europe on diesel supplies shortly.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump reportedly did not discuss the issue during their meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week. Macron, however, plans to convene a videoconference with G7 leaders to discuss fuel prices and the global supply of refined products, including possible coordination on releasing reserves in cooperation with the International Energy Agency.
Diesel prices at the pump hit record highs
Europe has become progressively more dependent on US diesel after banning Russian imports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and after the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran forced disruptions to supplies arriving from the Middle East.
Ahead of the colder months, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen sent a letter to the 27 Member States recommending that they reduce gas and electricity consumption “for as long as necessary”.
Jørgensen told journalists that he had urged Washington to consider the impact of a diesel ban. In Italy, Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin is in contact with Washington to clarify the potential consequences of such restrictions.
Because of the conflict in the Middle East, the average diesel price across the EU reached a record €2.23 per litre last week, rising to as much as €2.40 in France.
Jørgensen also said that the EU has spent more than €100 billion extra on energy imports since the start of the war, “without receiving a single additional molecule of gas or oil”.
A US diesel export ban would initially reduce US prices by 25 cents per gallon each week, equivalent to around 4% of the current price of $6.50 per gallon, but would increase wholesale prices in Europe by $3 per barrel, or around 2%, according to Goldman Sachs analysts in a report published on 26 September.
The release of Europe’s strategic diesel reserves could partially offset the potential increase in European prices, the analysts added.
United States is now Europe’s main diesel supplier
In an effort to reduce their dependence on Moscow, European US allies have increased imports from the United States, also following pressure from Washington.
Europe does not refine enough diesel domestically and has seen traditional supplies fall sharply because of restrictions on Russian products in 2023 and 2026, alongside significant reductions in exports from the Middle East, Russia and India.
To fill the gap, Europe has increasingly relied on the United States. US diesel now accounts for 32% of EU imports, up from 17% in 2025, while its share reaches around 57% in north-western Europe. France sources 36% of its diesel imports from the United States, while the figure for the United Kingdom is 26%.
Rather than accelerating electrification and expanding domestic renewable energy production, Europe has effectively replaced one form of energy dependence with another source of vulnerability. Could Europe have avoided paying twice for the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran? The answer is yes.
US diesel supplies accounted for 41% of European imports in September
According to Vortexa data, the United States supplied 41% of Europe’s diesel imports in September 2026, equivalent to around 400,000 barrels per day. This was above levels recorded a year earlier, although slightly below the all-time high reached in August.
At the same time, shipping US diesel across the Atlantic is becoming increasingly expensive. Freight rates for MR2 tankers on the Houston-Amsterdam route reached $90 per tonne on 29 September, up 73% in a single week.
Any US export restrictions would therefore put current supply volumes at risk. European arrivals could already decline in October, even without a US diesel export ban.