Strait of Hormuz oil market under pressure as uncertainty persists
Oil prices are climbing back toward 100 dollars per barrel after the sharp drop earlier this week triggered by the announcement of a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The partial rebound reflects persistent uncertainty around whether the Strait of Hormuz can be considered effectively open, as shipping companies remain unconvinced about the safety of transit and unclear on potential Iranian conditions.
Shipping risks and political control reshape flows
“It must be said clearly: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Passage is subject to permits, conditions and political leverage. This is not freedom of navigation, it is coercion,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, head of the UAE’s national oil company ADNOC.
Energy producers across the Gulf strongly oppose any agreement involving payments to Iran. Gulf monarchies argue that conditional transit violates the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees freedom of navigation through natural straits.
Iran’s demands and the cost of passage
Tehran is seeking direct control over transit. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iranian government is considering a tariff system for ships, potentially requiring payments in cryptocurrencies or Chinese renminbi.
For a supertanker carrying around two million barrels, transit fees could reach two million dollars, including security escorts and administrative costs.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called the proposal illegal, while also indicating that Washington will not actively intervene to block it. Donald Trump has reportedly suggested the possibility of a joint venture with Iran to manage toll collection.
Traffic collapse confirms the Strait is not fully open
Most shipping companies are choosing to remain idle. Without explicit guarantees that Iran will not target vessels, insurance and operational risks remain too high to resume regular flows.
According to Arab mediators, authorised ships must coordinate with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Traffic remains near historic lows. On April 8, only four vessels were allowed to transit, compared with more than 100 per day before the conflict.
Strait of Hormuz oil market disconnect hides the real shock
A growing divergence between futures and physical oil prices is obscuring the scale of the energy shock.
Futures prices remain well below the cost of physical shipments, which are increasingly scarce. This disconnect fails to reflect the severity of recent disruptions.
Dated Brent, widely considered the benchmark for physical crude purchases, reached 144 dollars per barrel this week. By contrast, Brent futures, after peaking near 120 dollars last month, are now trading around 95 dollars despite ongoing supply constraints and production cuts of nearly 10 million barrels per day.
Analyst Vandana Hari described the situation as a structural market failure, warning that the futures market risks becoming detached from physical reality.
A structural shift in the global oil market
According to Axios, multiple factors explain the pricing gap. Markets are struggling to interpret a disruption of unprecedented scale. Some participants believe the system is too large to fail, while others anticipate demand destruction that could trigger a sharp downturn.
Political uncertainty also plays a central role. Traders remain cautious in a context where policy signals can shift rapidly.
The longer-term impact could be profound. The crisis may transform the global oil market from an open and fluid system into a fragmented and politically influenced structure, leading to higher energy prices and sustained inflation.
Over time, this shift could even challenge the foundations of the dollar-based global economic system and, with it, US economic influence. As Daniel Yergin of S&P Global noted, this represents “the mother of all supply chain disruptions”.