The EU risks falling 5.3 percentage points short of its REPowerEU renewable electricity target for 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie. Despite significant progress in clean energy generation and reduced dependence on Russian gas, Europe could remain reliant on natural gas for longer than expected.
EU renewable energy targets: is REPowerEU falling behind?
The European Union’s ambitious renewable electricity targets may prove difficult to achieve. According to Wood Mackenzie analysts, the EU could fall 5.3 percentage points short of the 2030 target underpinning the REPowerEU scenario by the end of the decade, leaving the region dependent on natural gas for longer than initially anticipated.
REPowerEU and the EU renewable energy targets for 2030
To understand the challenges ahead, it is worth examining the progress made so far. When Brussels approved REPowerEU in 2023, in response to the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, it had a clear objective: to reduce and ultimately eliminate Russian gas imports. How? By establishing a plan to diversify gas supplies while increasing clean energy generation, particularly from solar and wind power.
The plan does not establish specific renewable energy targets. However, the working document supporting the development of REPowerEU examines the impact of the more ambitious objectives set out in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).
“The REPowerEU scenario shows that increasing the overall share of renewable energy sources to 45% by 2030 leads to an increase in renewables across all sectors, on both the supply and demand sides, including electricity, heating and cooling, industry, buildings and transport […] By 2030, the share of renewable energy in the electricity sector (‘RES-E’) will reach 69% under the plan.“
Renewable electricity generation and the decline in Russian gas imports
Progress has been made both in renewable energy deployment and in reducing fossil fuel imports. In fact, considerable progress.
The EU has managed to reduce the share of Russian gas in its imports from 45% in 2022 to 12% in 2025.
At the same time, the bloc has recorded a significant increase in clean electricity generation. The share of renewables in the electricity mix reached 47.3% across the EU, overtaking fossil fuels.
This was largely driven by record growth in solar installations. Total operational solar photovoltaic capacity reached 359 GW at the end of the year, compared with 303 GW installed by the end of 2024. During the same period, wind power added 13 GW of new capacity, bringing the total operational wind farm capacity to 244 GW.
However, as the European Commission itself has acknowledged, despite these impressive figures, further acceleration is needed to achieve the REPowerEU objectives.
Wood Mackenzie: EU renewable electricity share to reach just 63.7% by 2030
According to Wood Mackenzie analysts, current trends and plans suggest that renewables will account for 65% of electricity supply across 35 European markets by 2030, rising to 83% by 2050.
However, within the EU27, the renewable electricity share is expected to reach just 63.7% by 2030.
This would fall short not only of the more ambitious 69% target associated with REPowerEU, but also of the lower 65% target established under Fit for 55.
Despite expectations of substantial growth in energy storage capacity, particularly in Germany, Italy and Poland, rising electricity demand, driven in the short term by the expansion of data centres, will give natural gas a greater role than previously anticipated.
Natural gas generation expected to rise by 6% compared with previous forecasts
Wood Mackenzie estimates that natural gas generation in Europe will average 6% above previous forecasts between 2026 and 2040.
“The reason is structural: the scaling back of offshore wind creates a supply gap that is filled by gas. Capacity will increase by 5% to reach 273 GW by 2030, even as fleet utilisation falls from 27% to 22%. Gas will be retained for flexibility rather than volume, with capacity mechanisms and flexibility revenues at the centre of investment strategies.”
This, however, will have clear implications for Europe’s exposure to future fossil fuel crises.
Russian gas imports increased again in early 2026
Perhaps the most paradoxical development is that EU imports of Russian gas increased at the beginning of 2026.
Between January and May 2026, pipeline gas imports rose by 7% year on year, while imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 11%.
The increase can be attributed to a combination of factors, including early deliveries ahead of stricter restrictions, contractual adjustments and some volumes previously transshipped that may have remained within the EU.
These factors were compounded by efforts to maximise supplies from alternative sources following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) expects a more substantial decline in Russian gas imports once the full bans on LNG and pipeline gas from Russia come into force in 2027.
