IEA chief Fatih Birol warns that geopolitical tensions are putting energy security at increasing risk, with concerns over heating oil demand and a difficult winter ahead for Europe
Energy security under growing pressure as IEA warns of heating oil demand risks
The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has warned that geopolitical tensions are running exceptionally high, expressing concern about demand for heating oil in Western countries during the winter months.
Speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week conference, the IEA chief said he does not expect energy markets to return to their pre-Iran war levels in 2027.
“I’m afraid I don’t see any credible path back that the markets will go next year where we were before this war started,” Birol said, as reported by ThePrint.
“So therefore, we all need to get prepared, taking the energy security as a number one priority in our government, business world, but without forgetting what is the next chapter for the countries and for companies that are all here today,” he added.
Birol also stressed that geopolitical tensions have become an increasingly decisive factor in global energy markets.
Europe faces a difficult winter amid mounting energy security risks
Europe faces a difficult winter ahead, Birol warned. According to the IEA chief, the wars in Ukraine and Iran will make the coming months particularly challenging for the continent.
Brussels is no longer willing to give in to Russian pressure, while Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are no longer able to export gas at the levels recorded before the conflict. Together, these factors will place considerable pressure on gas markets this winter.
How much heating oil does Italy still consume?
In September, Unem, the Italian association representing fuel companies, reported that diesel and heating oil consumption in Italy fell by 4% in the first half of 2026, equivalent to a reduction of 495,000 tonnes.
The decline reflected lower consumption of diesel for transport (-3.7%) and heating oil (-11%).
Nevertheless, in 2025, heating oil consumption in Italy still amounted to 0.5 million tonnes, although this represented a 5.1% decrease compared with 2024.
In northern European countries such as Sweden and Norway, heating oil use has become marginal or has been almost entirely phased out, having been replaced by heat pumps, electricity from renewable sources and district heating.
Algeria to deploy troops to Niger to protect its energy interests
Geopolitical tensions and disruptions to fossil fuel supplies are not confined to Europe and the Middle East.
Algeria has decided to deploy troops abroad for the first time since 1973 to protect energy infrastructure.
The Algerian government has announced plans to send army units to Niger after parliament approved a resolution authorising the deployment of the National Army to Madama, in northern Niger, near the Libyan border.
Algeria’s interests in Niger are primarily linked to energy and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline.
After decades of delays, the project is expected to establish a new export corridor for African natural gas to international markets, particularly Europe, transporting gas from Nigeria through Niger.
Niger and Algeria have agreed to strengthen cooperation against jihadist violence, cross-border crime and illicit trafficking.
“This decision marks a historic break with Algeria’s doctrine of non-intervention in military conflicts beyond its borders. It stems from the need to protect the future Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline,” Abdellah Akir, an international relations researcher, told AFP.
Clean energy supply chain concentration remains a major obstacle to energy security
Birol also highlighted that the high concentration of clean energy supply chains in a small number of countries continues to represent another major obstacle to energy security.
Although he did not explicitly name the countries dominating supplies in this sector, he was referring to China, the world’s leading supplier of renewable energy equipment, from solar panels and wind turbines to electric vehicles and batteries.
