The EU could miss its 2030 renewable electricity target by 5.3 percentage points, according to Wood Mackenzie, prolonging Europe's dependence on natural gas despite significant progress in clean energy deployment.
REPowerEU renewable energy targets: the EU risks falling short by 2030
Add Rinnovabili to your Google favorites The European Union’s ambitious plans to expand renewable electricity generation could fall short of expectations. According to analysts at Wood Mackenzie, the EU is on course to miss the 2030 renewable electricity share envisaged in the REPowerEU modelling by 5.3 percentage points. Such a shortfall could leave Europe dependent on natural gas for longer than originally anticipated, despite considerable progress in diversifying energy supplies and expanding renewable capacity.
Understanding the challenges ahead requires examining what the EU has achieved so far. When Brussels approved REPowerEU in 2023, in response to the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war against Ukraine, the objective was clear: progressively reduce and ultimately eliminate dependence on Russian gas imports.
The strategy rested on two main pillars: diversifying gas supplies and accelerating clean electricity generation, particularly from solar photovoltaic and wind power.
Although REPowerEU does not itself establish binding renewable energy targets, the working document supporting its preparation assessed the implications of the more ambitious objectives subsequently incorporated into the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III).
The document states:
“The REPowerEU scenario shows that increasing the overall share of renewable energy sources to 45% by 2030 leads to an increase in renewables across all sectors, on both the supply and demand sides, including electricity, heating and cooling, industry, buildings and transport […] By 2030, the share of renewable energy in the electricity sector (RES-E) will reach 69% under the plan.”
Europe’s progress on renewable electricity and Russian gas imports
The EU has already made substantial progress in both reducing fossil fuel imports and expanding renewable electricity generation.
Most notably, the share of Russian gas in EU imports fell from 45% in 2022 to 12% in 2025, marking a significant shift in Europe’s energy supply structure.
At the same time, renewable electricity generation has increased considerably. According to Eurostat, renewables accounted for 47.3% of the EU electricity mix, overtaking fossil fuels.
Much of this growth has been driven by record solar installations. By the end of 2025, the EU’s total operational solar photovoltaic capacity had reached 359 GW, compared with 303 GW at the end of 2024.
Wind power also continued to expand, adding 13 GW of new capacity during the year and bringing the total installed wind fleet to 244 GW.
However, as the European Commission itself has acknowledged, impressive as these figures may be, further acceleration will be necessary to meet the ambitions associated with REPowerEU.
REPowerEU renewable energy targets: why the 69% objective is slipping out of reach
Wood Mackenzie’s latest projections suggest that current market trends and investment plans will not be sufficient to deliver the expected expansion of renewable electricity.
Across the 35 European electricity markets examined, renewables are projected to account for 65% of electricity supply by 2030, rising to 83% by 2050.
The outlook for the EU’s 27 Member States is less encouraging.
Wood Mackenzie expects the renewable electricity share in the EU27 to reach just 63.7% by 2030, falling below both the more ambitious 69% REPowerEU scenario and the 65% reference level associated with Fit for 55.
This gap raises questions about the pace of renewable energy deployment and the EU’s ability to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.
Electricity storage growth may not prevent greater reliance on gas
Electricity storage capacity is expected to increase substantially over the coming years, particularly in Germany, Italy and Poland.
Nevertheless, rising electricity demand, driven in the short term by the expansion of data centres, is likely to create additional opportunities for natural gas generation.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that natural gas-fired electricity generation in Europe will average 6% above previous forecasts between 2026 and 2040.
The analysts explain:
“The reason is structural: the scaling back of offshore wind creates a supply gap that is filled by gas. Capacity will increase by 5% to reach 273 GW by 2030, even as fleet utilisation falls from 27% to 22%. Gas will be retained for flexibility rather than volume, with capacity mechanisms and flexibility revenues at the centre of investment strategies.”
This outlook points to a changing role for natural gas in the European electricity system.
Rather than providing large volumes of baseload generation, gas-fired plants would increasingly serve as flexible capacity, supporting the electricity system when renewable generation is insufficient or demand rises.
However, maintaining this infrastructure also carries risks. Continued dependence on gas could leave Europe exposed to future fossil fuel supply disruptions and price volatility, potentially undermining some of the energy security benefits sought through REPowerEU.
Russian gas imports increased again in early 2026
One of the more striking developments is that EU imports of Russian gas increased during the first months of 2026, despite the bloc’s efforts to phase them out.
Between January and May 2026, Russian gas imports through pipelines rose by 7% year on year, while imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased by 11%.
Several factors may explain this temporary reversal.
These include deliveries brought forward ahead of tighter restrictions, contractual adjustments and volumes previously transhipped elsewhere that may instead have remained within the EU.
The increase also reflects efforts to maximise supplies from alternative sources following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) expects a more pronounced decline in Russian gas imports once the full restrictions on Russian LNG and pipeline gas enter into force in 2027.
The broader challenge remains unchanged: Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian gas, but the slower-than-expected expansion of renewable electricity could prolong its reliance on natural gas more generally.
The risk is therefore not simply that the EU will miss its REPowerEU renewable energy targets, but that the transition towards a more resilient and less fossil fuel-dependent electricity system will take longer than policymakers originally envisaged.
