Europe has already crossed an important threshold, with clean energy overtaking fossil fuels in the electricity mix. Now the same transition is set to unfold on a global scale. According to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026, renewable electricity generation is on track to overtake coal worldwide before the end of 2026, marking the first time the world’s largest source of power will no longer be coal. The milestone follows parity between renewables and coal in 2025, while renewables have already generated more electricity than gas globally since 2016.
Solar power remains the fastest-growing renewable technology
When referring to renewable electricity, the IEA includes hydropower, wind, solar PV, geothermal and bioenergy. For decades, hydropower dominated global renewable generation thanks to its long-established infrastructure and large-scale projects. That picture is now changing rapidly.
The agency’s latest analysis highlights solar photovoltaics as the main engine of global electricity growth. Since 2022, solar generation has expanded at an exceptional pace, recording annual increases of more than 24% in electricity output. Growth has eased slightly compared with the extraordinary expansion seen in 2024 and 2025, but remains exceptionally strong.
The IEA expects solar PV to overtake wind generation by the end of 2026, becoming the world’s second-largest renewable electricity source after hydropower.
Renewables surpass coal as global electricity reaches a historic milestone
The projected crossover comes despite a challenging backdrop. The 2026 energy crisis has temporarily boosted coal-fired generation in several regions, making the achievement far from inevitable.
Even so, the IEA forecasts that renewables will account for 33% of global electricity generation in 2026, rising further to 37% by 2027.
At the same time, the share of variable renewable energy (VRE), combining solar and wind power, is expected to increase from 17% in 2025 to 21% in 2027.
Why renewable electricity continues to expand
Several structural factors explain why renewables surpass coal despite continued fossil fuel demand.
The most important is cost competitiveness. Solar PV remains the world’s cheapest technology for building new electricity generation capacity, making it the primary driver of global renewable deployment.
China continues to dominate this expansion, accounting for roughly half of the global increase in solar electricity generation. However, growth is becoming increasingly diversified, with India and several other Asian economies accelerating renewable deployment and contributing more significantly to global output.
Wind power is also expected to strengthen, with global electricity generation forecast to grow by more than 6% in 2026. China’s contribution is expected to moderate following changes to its tariff system and slower new installations. By contrast, the European Union is likely to see stronger wind generation thanks to more favourable weather conditions than those experienced in 2025.
Hydropower faces a more uncertain outlook
Hydropower is projected to increase generation by just under 2% in 2026, supported mainly by stronger output in China and the United States during the first half of the year.
However, the return of El Niño is already reducing hydroelectric production in several regions, particularly across Latin America, with forecasts for 2027 remaining similarly challenging.
Coal generation continues to grow despite losing its leading position
While renewables surpass coal in global electricity production, coal generation itself is not expected to decline immediately.
Natural gas-fired electricity output is forecast to remain broadly stable, reflecting higher fuel prices linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Coal-fired generation, meanwhile, is projected to increase by 1.4% in 2026.
According to the IEA, this reflects a combination of higher natural gas prices, weather-related factors and increasing levels of renewable energy curtailment in some electricity markets.
The largest increases are expected in China and India. Both countries started 2026 with declining coal generation, with China recording its first contraction in more than a decade.
However, lower imports of liquefied natural gas, aimed at limiting the cost impact of the Middle East conflict, have left few immediate alternatives. At the same time, rising electricity demand for cooling during increasingly frequent heatwaves is reinforcing coal’s role as a reliable baseload power source.
Consultancies S&P Global Energy and Wood Mackenzie forecast China’s coal-fired electricity generation will increase by 1.5% and 2%, respectively, during the year.
