The European Union has replaced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas with growing reliance on imported LNG, particularly from the United States. A new ACER report warns that this shift is exposing Europe to fresh geopolitical, price and supply vulnerabilities at a time when gas demand remains structurally high.
LNG, EU world’s largest importer: ACER warns over new vulnerabilities
When the 2022 energy crisis forced the European Union to rapidly phase out Russian pipeline gas and diversify supply sources, Brussels moved quickly to secure alternative imports. Four years later, however, the bloc has effectively exchanged one strategic dependency for another.
Today, the EU has become the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, with US suppliers now accounting for more than half of European LNG imports. According to the latest monitoring report published by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, or ACER, this transition is creating a new layer of risks for European energy security and system resilience.
Presented during the informal Energy Council meeting, the 2026 ACER LNG Market Monitoring Report highlights how Europe’s growing exposure to the global LNG market leaves the bloc increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, supply disruptions and extreme price volatility.
Unlike the traditional pipeline gas market, which has historically relied on long-term regional contracts, the LNG sector operates on a fragmented global market heavily influenced by spot pricing, international competition and geopolitical tensions.
Europe’s gas demand still depends overwhelmingly on imports
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU member states reduced gas consumption and accelerated diversification efforts to strengthen energy security. Between 2021 and 2023, EU gas demand fell by 20%, declining from 413 billion cubic metres to 331 bcm.
However, demand reduction efforts have since stalled. By 2025, European gas consumption had risen again to 335 bcm.
What has not changed is the bloc’s structural dependence on imports. More than 90% of EU gas demand is still covered by external suppliers.
Over the past four years, Russian pipeline deliveries have progressively been replaced by LNG imports, which now represent almost half of Europe’s total gas supply. In 2025 alone, EU LNG imports reached a record 146 bcm, making the Union the largest LNG importer globally, ahead of China and Japan.
At the same time, Europe appears increasingly out of step with its own decarbonisation targets. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2025 gas consumption exceeded the Fit for 55 target by 5% and stood 9% above the trajectory outlined under REPowerEU.
LNG, EU world’s largest importer increasingly reliant on US gas
One of the clearest trends identified by ACER is the growing concentration of LNG supplies from the United States.
Driven by higher storage refill needs during the winter of 2024-2025, imports of US LNG surged sharply. American gas now represents 58% of EU LNG imports and roughly 25% of total European gas consumption.
This concentration raises significant concerns over energy security, particularly as reliance on US exports is expected to grow further alongside the expansion of American liquefaction capacity and the definitive phase-out of Russian gas supplies.
ACER also points to another critical vulnerability: geography.
Most US liquefaction facilities are concentrated along the Gulf Coast, an area highly exposed to hurricanes and extreme weather events. Operational disruptions linked to severe storms could therefore have a direct impact on gas availability for Europe.
The agency also stresses that supply security must be evaluated through a geopolitical lens. Europe’s experience with Russian gas dependency demonstrated how energy imports can become instruments of political leverage.
Spot market volatility adds further pressure
Price volatility remains another major concern, particularly in light of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
A significant share of Europe’s LNG imports is purchased through the spot market, which is highly sensitive to geopolitical instability, weather disruptions and global competition.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 temporarily removed export capacity equivalent to around 20% of global LNG supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
Although Qatari gas accounts for only 8% of EU LNG imports, the disruption intensified competition between European and Asian buyers for the remaining spot cargoes, driving prices sharply higher.
The situation worsened further after the conflict caused physical damage to liquefaction trains 4 and 6 at Qatar’s RasGas complex, temporarily removing around 3% of global LNG production capacity from the market.
As a result, force majeure clauses were declared on several supply contracts, including deliveries to Italy and Belgium. This pushed buyers towards the significantly more expensive spot market, increasing uncertainty over future gas availability.
What Europe risks as the world’s largest LNG importer
The most immediate risk for Europe is the emergence of structurally tight gas markets combined with persistently elevated prices, where the only remaining balancing mechanism becomes forced demand destruction.
The EU entered the 2026 storage refill season with reserves at just 28%, well below historical averages. Combined with strong global competition for LNG cargoes, this is expected to keep upward pressure on prices throughout the year.
More broadly, ACER’s analysis suggests that Europe’s current LNG strategy may have solved one short-term supply crisis while creating a new set of long-term vulnerabilities, precisely as the bloc attempts to balance energy security, industrial competitiveness and climate targets.
