Global trade in electric cars and batteries is set to more than triple by 2035, reshaping industrial value chains and global energy balances.
Electric cars drive a surge in global BEV and battery trade
The number of electric cars worldwide is expected to continue rising, as confirmed by the latest registration data. In parallel, the value of global trade in battery electric vehicles and batteries has more than tripled in recent years. By 2035, it is projected to reach $880 billion, compared with $234 billion in 2024.
This growth outlook comes from BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, which suggests that the acceleration is driven not primarily by new climate policies, but by the structural decline in technology costs linked to scaling production.
Internal combustion trade in decline
As electric vehicles climb global sales rankings, international trade in internal combustion engine vehicles is moving in the opposite direction. By 2035, its value is expected to fall to $340 billion, a 39% decline compared with 2024 levels.
The shift signals a structural industrial transformation. International automotive trade, traditionally dominated by internal combustion vehicles, is transitioning towards a value chain that integrates vehicles, batteries, electronic components and critical raw materials.
Fossil fuels stable in the short term, declining thereafter
Global trade in fossil fuels, driven largely by crude oil and refined products, is expected to remain significant at around $3 trillion until 2030, before entering structural decline through to 2050 under the Economic Transition Scenario.
Natural gas trade is projected to grow over the period, but not sufficiently to offset the sharp fall in oil demand in overall value terms. Nevertheless, fossil fuels are expected to account for more than half of global energy trade flows for much of the forecast horizon.
Only under BloombergNEF’s Net Zero Scenario, which assumes policies aligned with climate neutrality by 2050, would fossil fuel trade fall below $1 trillion by 2040.
China and the United States on diverging paths
The reconfiguration of global energy trade is also reshaping geopolitical balances. China is currently the world’s largest exporter of clean technologies and, according to BloombergNEF, is expected to retain at least one third of global clean energy exports through to 2050.
The expansion of BEV exports, combined with rising domestic electrification, is projected to transform China’s current energy trade deficit, which stood at $266 billion in 2024, into a surplus by the late 2030s.
This advantage is not only about volumes. China has vertically integrated the battery value chain, from raw materials to cell and module production, consolidating a competitive edge that is difficult to challenge in the short term.
The United States risks a structural deficit
The United States is currently a net importer of the 28 energy goods analysed in the report, although the imbalance is moderated by strong oil and gas exports. As the energy transition progresses, fossil fuel exports are expected to stabilise and then decline, while imports of clean technologies increase.
The result would be a persistently negative energy trade balance of around $130 billion through to 2050, raising the risk that the country shifts from a dominant energy exporter to a net importer of strategic technologies.
Europe: less oil, more electric vehicles
For the European Union, the outlook is intermediate. The energy-related trade deficit is expected to shrink by 29% by 2035, largely due to lower crude oil imports and increased exports of electric vehicles.
However, competition with China in global electric cars markets is set to intensify. European industry will need to compete on technological innovation, battery manufacturing capacity, resilient local supply chains and secure access to critical raw materials.
